Forecasting the unpredictable NHL postseason is a bit like having dandruff- people think you are weird and you are often left scratching your head. Knowing just how much the internet is clamoring for my predictions, I have doused my crystal ball with Selsun Blue, so let's get started. Who wants to talk about the Caps-Islanders Eastern Conference Quarterfinal match up?
WHY THE CAPS WILL WIN THE SERIES:
1. BARRY TROTZ: During his first season in D.C., Trotz has installed a tight-checking, gap-control system that the players are actually buying in to. Playing as a five man unit defensively, players see that sound defense can quickly transition to opportunistic offense. Trotz has a good feel for his team. Whether talking line combos, goalie starts or healthy scratches, he has often pushed the right buttons. That he has never advanced any deeper into the playoffs than the Ovechkin-era Caps is a valid criticism, but Trotz never had in Nashville the offensive firepower that he has in Washington.
2. TOUGHNESS: Trotz has demanded a level of toughness that even hard-ass Dale Hunter could not coax out of these Caps. Opponents remark that the Caps are now hard to play against. Washington has big bodies that can grind a team down. I'm not saying they are the second coming of recent Bruins teams that punished defenses under a relentless forecheck, but the Caps are swift enough and rugged enough up front to make teams pay. Now, will they?
3. DEFENSE: For years, fans begged GM George McPhee to improve the defense. Yet trade deadlines and offseasons passed year after year with only a rotating cast of has-beens and minor league journeymen manning the back half of the defense corp. During free agency new GM Brian McClellan overspent to land stud defenseman Brooks Orpik and fellow blue-liner Matt Nisskanen. They have stabalized a realigned defense that is now a team strength.
4.MIKE GREEN: Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the revamped defense has been Mike Green. Relegated to the third D pairing has been a blessing. He appears to be healthy after no longer being asked to play thirty minutes a night. Bruce Boudreau irresponsibly ran this kid into the ground. Green has responded to playing less minutes by producing nearly the same number of points in far fewer minutes than in recent seasons. He is getting hot at the right time and could be a major offensive weapon in this series. Though, I reserve the right to move him to the WHY THE CAPS WILL LOSE THIS SERIES column as soon as he makes a bonehead, high-risk pass to the other team.
5.NUMBER 8: Alex Ovechkin has had some masterful playoff performances (dueling hat tricks with Sidney Crosby, Game 5 against the Rangers in 2009), but he has yet to elevate his game to an elite status during a deep playoff run or even an entire series, for that matter. This has probably been Ovi's best all-around season. He has played better defensively (Let's be honest, it would be hard no to.), he has played well with many different linemates and he has led by example with his physical play. Is this the year he is less Pavel Bure and more Mike Modano or Steve Yzerman, still a potent scorer, but a more mature defender and leader?
6. BRADEN HOLTBY: Solid, bordering on spectacular regular season. Most playoff-ready backstop since Godzilla. My chief concern is the number of minutes he has logged. 73 games played is a lot. In fact, not since Grant Fuhr twenty-nine years ago has a Cup-winning goalie played so many games during the regular season. But In Trotz, We Trust. (Not that I think this team has what it takes to win it all.)
WHY THE CAPS WILL LOSE THE SERIES:
HAVE YOU MET THE CAPS? This collection of misfits deems it their annual mission to make ME, a complete stranger only loosely connected to their place of work on a geographic basis, miserable. The Islanders are talented, have a goalie that has previously foiled the Caps in the first round and may be poised to embark on a magical, last hurrah, history evoking Cup run to say farewell to Nassau Coliseum.
As Dave Letterman would say, this is an exhibition not a competition, so please, please, no wagering. But if I were a betting man, I'd say Islanders in 7.
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